Break-even · illustrative
Operating break-even in Year 2.
Under the current inputs, Year 1 operating net is -$12,200 and cumulative cash stays positive from Year 2. Adjust inputs on the model page; this view updates.
| Year | Revenue | Costs | of which marketing | Operating net | Startup costs | Hypothetical seed gift | Cumulative cash |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Y1 | $45K | $57K | $2,700 | -$12K | $8,000 | $15K | -$5,200 |
| Y2 | $90K | $66K | $5,394 | $24K | $0 | $0 | $19K |
| Y3 | $104K | $71K | $6,254 | $34K | $0 | $0 | $52K |
| Y4 | $122K | $77K | $7,332 | $45K | $0 | $0 | $97K |
| Y5 | $145K | $86K | $8,694 | $59K | $0 | $0 | $156K |
Highlighted rows have a non-negative operating net. Cumulative cash = gifts + operating net - capital, summed.
Sensitivity
One lever at a time, all else equal under the selected scenario.
| Lever | Break-even year | Y2 net | Y5 net | 5-yr operating net |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Baseline Current inputs and scenario. | Y2 | $24K | $59K | $149K |
Revenue -25% Every earned and contributed line under-delivers by a quarter. | Y2 | $2,754 | $25K | $30K |
Revenue -10% Modest shortfall across all lines. | Y2 | $15K | $45K | $101K |
Revenue +10% Modest outperformance across all lines. | Y2 | $32K | $72K | $197K |
Costs +15% Wage, vendor or space costs run hotter than planned. | Y2 | $15K | $47K | $100K |
Costs -10% Volunteer leverage or shared services reduce costs. | Y2 | $30K | $66K | $182K |
Marketing +4 pts Heavier launch marketing as a share of revenue. | Y2 | $20K | $53K | $129K |
Marketing -4 pts Lean, owned-channel-first marketing. | Y2 | $27K | $65K | $169K |
Scenario math, not a forecast